A deep dive into data regarding outbound travel for the first eight months of 2022 shows the following: although Canadians made nearly 13.5 million trips out of the country in the first eight months of 2022, that was only 58 per cent of the 23.2 million trips taken during the comparable period of 2019. And although Canadians made 8.2 million trips out of the country between May and August 2022, that was 29 per cent fewer than the similar period in pre-pandemic 2019. In addition, during the first four months of the summer travel season (May through August), Canadians made 5.5 million trips to the U.S. – 27 per cent fewer than during the 2019 summer season. (All trip data in the CBoC report refer to trips involving at least one overnight stay. They do not include same-day trips across borders.) Still, travel to the U.S. clearly outpaced that to Europe, the United Kingdom, Caribbean and Central American countries and even Mexico, which is normally Canada’s favourite vacation destination after the U.S. The most severe reductions in first quarter 2022 versus pre-pandemic 2019 were for travel to Asia, Oceania and the South Pacific – down to just 16 per cent of 2019 activity, with China showing a 99.3 per cent drop in Canadian visitors compared to 2019. (Again, these data are based on comparable eightmonth, January through August, figures.) According to Jennifer Hendry, CBoC senior research associate and author of the report: “The recovery to date has been better than we expected,” although she noted that a full return to pre-pandemic levels may more likely occur for the 2023 summer travel season. However, snowbirds, particularly those with homes at their disposal in the South, will very likely return as planned. In response to a question concerning the consistent slide in consumer confidence levels among 55- to 69-year cohorts (from August to October), Ms. Hendry suggested that they may simply be “more realistic and cautious” in dealing with long-term financial matters than younger generational groups, although “it’s considered unlikely the Consumer Confidence levels will drop any further.” Special Report 2 Outbound Canada Nearly 13.5 million Canadians returned home from an overnight trip to the U.S. and other destinations throughout the first eight months of 2022. This was seven times the volume recorded in 2021, and represents 58 per cent of activity during the same period in 2019. The month of August saw transborder trips reach 75 per cent of prepandemic volume while overseas activity was at 64 per cent of 2019 activity. The first four months of the summer travel season (May-Aug) saw almost 8.2 million Canadians return home from an overnight trip to the U.S. and other destinations, compared to nearly 11.5 million trips during the same period in 2019 (-29%). Overnight Travel1 (000s of trips) (Jan-Aug, each year) Source: Statistics Canada and CBSA (see footnote). Monthly Trip Activity as a Share of Pre-Pandemic Volume 1 New methods to estimate the proportion of overnight and same-day travellers returning from the U.S. by all modes except for bus and auto obile were implemented by Statistics Canada in 2019, which resulted in significant changes in the reported volume of same-day and overnight trips. To allow for a more comparable assessment of year-over-year changes, historical overnight trip proportions for Canadians returning from the U.S. have been adjusted. 31% 34% 48% 69% 75% 68% 72% 75% 33% 31% 46% 58% 64% 69% 77% 64% Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 USA OVS 15,877 16,520 16,343 14,949 13,418 13,276 13,871 14,016 4,430 8,580 6,951 6,886 7,495 8,253 8,509 8,904 8,923 9,204 3,935 4,888 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Overseas USA 940 886 In a statement released on November 17, Governor Ron DeSantis reported that tourism to Florida so far this year has remained buoyant, peaking at 104.5 million out-of-state visitors, an increase of 4.1 per cent over the comparable period in pandemic 2019. Canadians accounted for 539,000 visits during the third quarter of 2022 (July through September), an increase of 442 per cent over the comparable quarter in 2021. CSANews | WINTER 2022 | 23
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